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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Who Will Win, Who Will Lose?

Another year, another Academy Awards ceremony. Here are our predictions for every category.

The film community and the general audience come together in a rare instance once again for the famous award ceremony most people come out dissatisfied with, but everybody watches; the Oscars. The Academy Awards celebrate their 94th edition after even more controversy than usual with baffling decisions, such as choosing to not broadcast vital categories like Editing and Sound, so they can fit in things like Fan Favorites because 40-year-old nerds are the film demographic that finally needed its due. People gather around to watch this international film ceremony that had its first foreign-language winner for Best Picture a mere two years ago. A love-hate relationship, where smaller movies finally get the attention they deserve at the cost of the same film about a middle-aged white cishet man turning his life around and crying three times in every scene winning Best Picture; just what the Academy loves! So here’s what the staff of GateCrashers believes should win and what the Academy will actually choose. Here are our Oscars 2022 predictions.


Best Picture

Tôko Miura (Misaki Watari), and Hidetoshi Nishijima (Yūsuke Kafuku) in Drive My Car
Tôko Miura as Misaki Watari, and Hidetoshi Nishijima as Yūsuke Kafuku in Drive My Car (2021)

DRIVE MY CAR: 4 votes.

Drive My Car is the type of film that completely reminds me of everything that is beautiful about cinema.

Gabrielle Cazeaux

CODA: 2 votes.

Like I said earlier, CODA has slowly become a dark horse contender throughout the awards season. The Academy, for better or worse, does tend to give it to underdog stories like this more often than not. So it would not shock me if CODA won the big award of the night.

Jon Scott

DUNE: 1 vote.

Dune is absolutely not going to win for best picture. But I can dream.

Ashley Durante

WEST SIDE STORY: 1 vote.

THE POWER OF THE DOG: 1 vote.

BELFAST: 0 votes.

LICORICE PIZZA: 0 votes.

NIGHTMARE ALLEY: 0 votes.

KING RICHARD: 0 votes.

DON’T LOOK UP: 0 votes.


Directing

Ryusuke Hamaguchi / Oscars 2022 Predictions
Ryusuke Hamaguchi

DRIVE MY CAR by Ryusuke Hamaguchi: 4 votes.

THE POWER OF THE DOG by Jane Campion: 3 votes.

WEST SIDE STORY by Steven Spielberg: 2 votes.

LICORICE PIZZA by Paul Thomas Anderson: 0 votes.

BELFAST by Kenneth Branagh: 0 votes.

Jane Campion delivered a wonderful melancholic take on the West that will probably net her the Oscar this year. However, Spielberg delivered his most lively film in years with WSS. It’s a film that reminded me so much of his films I grew up watching and falling in love with.

Jon Scott

Actress in a Leading Role

Kristen Stewart as Diana Frances Spencer in Spencer (2021) / Oscars 2022 Predictions
Kristen Stewart as Diana Frances Spencer in Spencer (2021)

Kristen Stewart in SPENCER: 6 votes.

Jessica Chastain in THE EYES OF TAMMY FAYE: 3 votes.

Olivia Colman in THE LOST DAUGHTER: 0 votes.

Penélope Cruz in PARALLEL MOTHERS: 0 votes.

Nicole Kidman in BEING THE RICARDOS: 0 votes.

Kristen Stewart has finally proven to the world what has always been true. Her turn as Diana, Princess of Wales is spectacular because the film doesn’t make an attempt to hide the fact that we are watching Stewart portray Diana. And yet I was utterly convinced that I was watching Diana’s life on the screen.

Patrick Dickerson

Actress in a Supporting Role

Ariana DeBose as Anita in West Side Story (2021) / Oscars 2022 Predictions
Ariana DeBose as Anita in West Side Story (2021)

Ariana DeBose in WEST SIDE STORY: 9 votes.

Jessie Buckley in THE LOST DAUGHTER: 0 votes.

Kirsten Dunst in THE POWER OF THE DOG: 0 votes.

Aunjanue Ellis in KING RICHARD: 0 votes.

Judi Dench in BELFAST: 0 votes.

DeBose LIT up the screen as Anita in WSS. She’s an absolute lock here.

Jon Scott

Actor in a Leading Role

Andrew Garfield as Jonathan Larson in Tick, Tick...BOOM! (2021)
Andrew Garfield as Jonathan Larson in Tick, Tick…BOOM! (2021)

Andrew Garfield in TICK, TICK…BOOM!: 5 votes.

Andrew Garfield’s turn as Jonathan Larson made this little theater nerd cry. Give him the statue, already!

Ashley Durante

Denzel Washington in THE TRAGEDY OF MACBETH: 2 votes.

A portrayal of the Scottish king could easily have been lost in the sweeping artistry and incredible cinematography of The Tragedy of Macbeth, but Denzel Washington rises to the stark power of the film to deliver a masterful performance of a classic role that many know by heart. This performance alone should have been enough to elevate this film to Best Picture nominee.

Patrick Dickerson

Will Smith in KING RICHARD: 2 votes.

Benedict Cumberbatch in THE POWER OF THE DOG: 0 votes.

Javier Bardem in BEING THE RICARDOS: 0 votes.


Actor in a Supporting Role

Troy Kotsur as Frank Rossi in CODA (2021)
Troy Kotsur as Frank Rossi in CODA (2021)

Troy Kotsur in CODA: 7 votes.

Ciarán Hinds in BELFAST: 1 vote.

J.K. Simmons in BEING THE RICARDOS: 1 vote.

Jesse Plemons in THE POWER OF THE DOG: 0 votes.

Kodi Smit-McPhee in THE POWER OF THE DOG: 0 votes.


Writing (Original Screenplay)

Alana Haim as Alana Kane and Cooper Hoffman as Gary Valentine in Licorice Pizza (2021) / Oscars 2022 Predictions
Alana Haim as Alana Kane and Cooper Hoffman as Gary Valentine in Licorice Pizza (2021)

LICORICE PIZZA by Paul Thomas Anderson: 4 votes.

THE WORST PERSON IN THE WORLD by Eskil Vogt, Joachim Trier: 3 votes.

BELFAST by Kenneth Branagh: 2 votes.

KING RICHARD by Zach Baylin: 0 votes.

DON’T LOOK UP by Adam McKay & David Sirota: votes.

“Who Should Not Win: Don’t Look Up because shame on you for even calling that a screenplay”

Jon Scott

Writing (Adapted Screenplay)

Olivia Coman as Leda in The Lost Daughter (2021) / Oscars 2022 Predictions
Olivia Coman as Leda in The Lost Daughter (2021)

DRIVE MY CAR by Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Takamasa Oe: 6 votes.

THE POWER OF THE DOG by Jane Campion: 2 votes.

DUNE by Jon Spaihts and Denis Villeneuve and Eric Roth: 1 vote.

THE LOST DAUGHTER by Maggie Gyllenhaal: 0 votes.

CODA by Siân Heder: 0 votes.


Animated Feature Film

The Mitchells Vs. The Machines (2021)
The Mitchells Vs. The Machines (2021)

THE MITCHELLS VS. THE MACHINES by Mike Rianda, Phil Lord, Christopher Miller and Kurt Albrecht: 5 votes.

The Mitchells vs. the Machines has an excellent story, but this film’s strength is in its animation. Unwilling to shy away from the cartoony nature of less “serious” animation, The Mitchells vs. the Machines rejects realistic stage setting for zany effects and overlays that help define the narrative. The strong ensemble seamlessly incorporates into this bizarre structure, in particular Mike Rianda’s Aaron.

Patrick Dickerson

FLEE by Jonas Poher Rasmussen, Monica Hellström, Signe Byrge Sørensen and Charlotte De La Gournerie: 3 votes.

ENCANTO by Jared Bush, Byron Howard, Yvett Merino and Clark Spencer: 1 vote.

LUCA by Enrico Casarosa and Andrea Warren: 0 votes.

RAYA AND THE LAST DRAGON by Don Hall, Carlos López Estrada, Osnat Shurer and Peter Del Vecho: 0 votes.

Truthfully, most of the movies in this category were fine—enjoyable, but not outstanding. Except for The Mitchells vs. the Machines which is, objectively, a perfect movie. And what’s even better is that it didn’t come from the Mouse!

Amanda Ramirez

International Feature Film

Renate Reinsve as Julie in The Worst Person in the World (2021) / Oscars 2022 Predictions
Renate Reinsve as Julie in The Worst Person in the World (2021)

DRIVE MY CAR, Japan: 9 votes.

THE WORST PERSON IN THE WORLD, Norway: 0 votes.

The Worst Person in the World had the misfortune of premiering the same year Drive My Car did, and to be judged by the Academy, because it is probably the second best film between all the nominees and deserving of a lot more nods.

Gabrielle Cazeaux

FLEE, Denmark: 0 votes.

LUNANA: A YAK IN THE CLASSROOM, Bhutan: 0 votes.

THE HAND OF GOD, Italy: 0 votes.


Documentary (Feature)

Summer of Soul (...Or, When The Revolution Could Not Be Televised) (2021)
Summer of Soul (…Or, When The Revolution Could Not Be Televised) (2021)

SUMMER OF SOUL (…OR, WHEN THE REVOLUTION COULD NOT BE TELEVISED) by Ahmir “Questlove” Thompson, Joseph Patel, Robert Fyvolent and David Dinerstein: 6 votes

FLEE by Jonas Poher Rasmussen, Monica Hellström, Signe Byrge Sørensen and Charlotte De La Gournerie: 3 votes.

ASCENSION by Jessica Kingdon, Kira Simon-Kennedy and Nathan Truesdell: 0 votes.

ATTICA by Stanley Nelson and Traci A. Curry: 0 votes.

WRITING WITH FIRE by Rintu Thomas and Sushmit Ghosh: 0 votes.

Flee captures a critical moment in a unique format. An unflinching look at being a refugee, Flee so perfectly captured what so many films have shot for and missed: a story about a queer person that lets the queerness help tell the story. Other nominees this year (Tick, Tick… Boom!, The Power of the Dog) make queerness the hook or the twist, but Flee achieves something more subtle and important: our sexuality is but one facet of who we are and the story we tell.

Patrick Dickerson

Documentary (Short Subject)

Three Songs for Benazir (2021) / Oscars 2022 Predictions
Three Songs for Benazir (2021)

THREE SONGS FOR BENAZIR by Ben Proudfoot: 4 votes.

WHEN WE WERE BULLIES by Jay Rosenblatt: 2 votes.

AUDIBLE by Matt Ogens and Geoff McLean: 2 votes.

LEAD ME HOME by Pedro Kos and Jon Shenk: 1 vote.

THE QUEEN OF BASKETBALL by Ben Proudfoot: 0 votes.


Short Film (Live Action)

Riz Ahmed in The Long Goodbye (2021) / Oscars 2022 Predictions
Riz Ahmed in The Long Goodbye (2021)

THE LONG GOODBYE by Aneil Karia and Riz Ahmed: 5 votes.

ALA KACHUU – TAKE AND RUN by Maria Brendle and Nadine Lüchinger: 3 votes.

ON MY MIND by Martin Strange-Hansen and Kim Magnusson: 1 votes.

THE DRESS by Tadeusz Łysiak and Maciej Ślesicki: 0 votes.

PLEASE HOLD by K.D. Dávila and Levin Menekse: 0 votes.


Short Film (Animated)

Robin Robin (2021)
Robin Robin (2021)

ROBIN ROBIN by Dan Ojari and Mikey Please: 5 votes.

BESTIA by Hugo Covarrubias and Tevo Díaz: 3 votes.

THE WINDSHIELD WIPER by Alberto Mielgo and Leo Sanchez: 1 vote.

BOXBALLET by Anton Dyakov: 0 votes.

AFFAIRS OF THE ART by Joanna Quinn and Les Mills: 0 votes.


Music (Original Score)

Timothée Chalamet as Paul Atreides in Dune (2021)
Timothée Chalamet as Paul Atreides in Dune (2021)

DUNE by Hans Zimmer: 7 votes.

THE POWER OF THE DOG by Jonny Greenwood: 2 votes.

ENCANTO by Germaine Franco: 0 votes.

PARALLEL MOTHERS by Alberto Iglesias: 0 votes.

DON’T LOOK UP by Nicholas Britell: 0 votes.

As a classical musician, Dune is the kind of score I would die to play. Hans Zimmer’s compositions bring an aural experience just as important as the visual to tie Villeneuve’s film into a complete package. If there was any doubt before, Zimmer has firmly cemented his place among film music’s greats.

Patrick Dickerson

Music (Original Song)

Billie Eilish performing No Time To Die from No Time To Die (2021)
Billie Eilish performing No Time To Die from No Time To Die (2021)

“No Time To Die” from NO TIME TO DIE by Billie Eilish and Finneas O’Connell: 6 votes.

“Dos Oruguitas” from ENCANTO by Lin-Manuel Miranda: 2 votes.

“Be Alive” from KING RICHARD by DIXSON and Beyoncé Knowles-Carter: 1 vote.

“Down To Joy” from BELFAST by Van Morrison: 0 vote.

“Somehow You Do” from FOUR GOOD DAYS by Diane Warren: 0 vote.

Considering the Academy’s history with Original Song, it’s likely that it will go to “No Time to Die” but if they had any sense at all, they’d choose “Dos Oruguitas.” Not only is it arguably the most well-crafted song from Encanto, but it also makes me sob uncontrollably the moment I hear it.

Amanda Ramirez

Sound

Kirsten Dunst as Rose Gordon in The Power of the Dog (2021) / Oscars 2022 Predictions
Kirsten Dunst as Rose Gordon in The Power of the Dog (2021)

DUNE by Mac Ruth, Mark Mangini, Theo Green, Doug Hemphill and Ron Bartlett: 9 votes.

WEST SIDE STORY by Tod A. Maitland, Gary Rydstrom, Brian Chumney, Andy Nelson and Shawn Murphy: 0 votes.

NO TIME TO DIE by Simon Hayes, Oliver Tarney, James Harrison, Paul Massey and Mark Taylor: 0 votes.

THE POWER OF THE DOG by Richard Flynn, Robert Mackenzie and Tara Webb: 0 votes.

BELFAST by Denise Yarde, Simon Chase, James Mather and Niv Adiri: 0 votes.


Production Design

Bradley Cooper as Stanton Carlisle in Nightmare Alley (2021) / Oscars 2022 Predictions
Bradley Cooper as Stanton Carlisle in Nightmare Alley (2021)

WEST SIDE STORY, Production Design by Adam Stockhausen; Set Decoration by Rena DeAngelo: 4 votes.

DUNE, Production Design by Patrice Vermette; Set Decoration by Zsuzsanna Sipos: 2 votes.

NIGHTMARE ALLEY, Production Design by Tamara Deverell; Set Decoration by Shane Vieau: 2 votes.

THE TRAGEDY OF MACBETH, Production Design by Stefan Dechant; Set Decoration by Nancy Haigh: 1 vote.

THE POWER OF THE DOG Production Design by Grant Major; Set Decoration by Amber Richards: 0 votes.

Del Toro films are a visual treat to behold. While I won’t be surprised if Dune takes it, GDT is usually a sure bet

Jon Scott

Cinematography

Denzel Washington as Macbeth and Frances McDormand as Lady Macbeth in The Tragedy of Macbeth (2021)
Denzel Washington as Macbeth and Frances McDormand as Lady Macbeth in The Tragedy of Macbeth (2021)

DUNE by Greig Fraser: 4 votes.

WEST SIDE STORY by Janusz Kaminski: 3 votes.

THE TRAGEDY OF MACBETH by Bruno Delbonnel: 1 vote.

Bruno Delbonnel’s shots in The Tragedy of Macbeth are so incredible that they become a character themselves. The cinematography becomes the prophecy and the magic. It tells as much of the story as Washington or McDormand and engages in the same mysticism as Kathryn Hunter’s Witches. Cinematography is an art I want to notice, and Delbonnel doesn’t let you stop paying attention.

Patrick Dickerson

THE POWER OF THE DOG by Ari Wegner: 1 vote.

NIGHTMARE ALLEY by Dan Laustsen: 0 votes.

Janusz, at 62, moved like a fresh faced 20 year old when he shot West Side Story. The most lively work he’s done in years.

Jon Scott

Makeup and Hairstyling

Andrew Garfield as Jim Bakker and Jessica Chastain as Tammy Faye Bakker in The Eyes of Tammy Faye (2021)
Andrew Garfield as Jim Bakker and Jessica Chastain as Tammy Faye Bakker in The Eyes of Tammy Faye (2021)

THE EYES OF TAMMY FAYE by Linda Dowds, Stephanie Ingram and Justin Raleigh: 5 votes.

CRUELLA by Nadia Stacey, Naomi Donne and Julia Vernon: 2 votes.

DUNE by Donald Mowat, Love Larson and Eva von Bahr: 1 vote.

HOUSE OF GUCCI by Göran Lundström, Anna Carin Lock and Frederic Aspiras: 1 vote.

COMING 2 AMERICA by Mike Marino, Stacey Morris and Carla Farmer: 0 votes.

While the incredible work of transforming Jessica Chastain into Tammy Faye is notable, the real star of this movie is the incredible aging work on Andrew Garfield’s Jim Bakker.

Patrick Dickerson

Costume Design

Peter Dinklage as Cyrano de Bergerac and Haley Bennett as Roxanne in Cyrano (2021) / Oscars 2022 Predictions
Peter Dinklage as Cyrano de Bergerac and Haley Bennett as Roxanne in Cyrano (2021)

CRUELLA by Jenny Beavan: 4 votes.

WEST SIDE STORY by Paul Tazewell: 2 votes.

CYRANO by Massimo Cantini Parrini and Jacqueline Durran: 2 votes.

NIGHTMARE ALLEY by Luis Sequeira: 1 vote.

DUNE by Jacqueline West and Robert Morgan: 0 votes.

Give Paul Tazewell the Oscar for Ariana DeBose’s dress in “America” alone.

Patrick Dickerson

Film Editing

Saniyya Sidney as Venus Williams, Demi Singleton as Serena Williams, and Will Smith as Richard Williams in King Richard (2021)
Saniyya Sidney as Venus Williams, Demi Singleton as Serena Williams, and Will Smith as Richard Williams in King Richard (2021)

TICK, TICK…BOOM! by Myron Kerstein and Andrew Weisblum: 4 votes.

DUNE by Joe Walker: 3 votes.

THE POWER OF THE DOG by Peter Sciberras: 2 votes.

KING RICHARD by Pamela Martin: 0 votes.

DON’T LOOK UP by Hank Corwin: 0 votes.


Visual Effects

Dune (2021) / Oscars 2022 Predictions
Dune (2021)

DUNE by Paul Lambert, Tristan Myles, Brian Connor and Gerd Nefzer: 7 votes.

Shai-Hulud rising from the sands of Arrakis is one of the defining shots of film this year. In a movie that was at times told at intimate levels, the overwhelming sandworm shows how visual effects were used by Villeneuve in a thoughtful way. And the intricately crafted maw of the Old Man of the Desert shows the craft of those the director entrusted with his vision.

Patrick Dickerson

SHANG-CHI AND THE LEGEND OF THE TEN RINGS by Christopher Townsend, Joe Farrell, Sean Noel Walker and Dan Oliver: 1 vote.

FREE GUY by Swen Gillberg, Bryan Grill, Nikos Kalaitzidis and Dan Sudick: 1 vote.

NO TIME TO DIE by Charlie Noble, Joel Green, Jonathan Fawkner and Chris Corbould: 0 votes.

SPIDER-MAN: NO WAY HOME by Kelly Port, Chris Waegner, Scott Edelstein and Dan Sudick: 0 votes.

If Spider Man or Free Guy take this in an upset, I will actually laugh out loud

Jon Scott

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